Annual outlook 2025: A strategy for diverging markets

Key theses for 2025 and implications for investors

• Global Outlook: Monetary easing meets inflationary threats and geopolitical risks from the Trump agenda. A diversified asset allocation and a robust multi-asset approach with active risk management are crucial.
• Equities: Regional and sectoral focus pays off - exploit opportunities outside the US and in value stocks, while the US sub-sector remains relevant despite valuation overhang.
• Bonds: Dynamic interest rate environment creates selective opportunities, whereby “long duration” remains strategically relevant and corporate bonds are only attractive to a limited extent.
• Commodities & precious metals: Geopolitical and environmental trends make crude oil and industrial metals attractive; gold remains interesting in the long term and can serve as a geopolitical hedge at times.
• Money and currencies: Moderate dollar strength and a benefiting yen due to monetary tightening require agile currency management and avoidance of excessive dollar exposure.
• Private Markets: Infrastructure, transportation and private debt offer particular opportunities with high yield levels despite interest rate cuts, while secondary funds offer attractive discounts.
• Hedge funds: Market-neutral strategies and convertible bond arbitrage are benefiting from current imbalances, with a focus on diversifying systematic approaches.
• Digital assets: Bitcoin is establishing itself as a store of value, while altcoins offer potential and positive drivers predominate.
• Volatility strategies: Increased volatility offers attractive return potential and remains an important portfolio component in the face of numerous uncertainties.
• Real estate: Falling interest rates create new opportunities, whereby energy standards are crucial and price adjustments are well advanced. 

Teaser video with Dr. Marcel V. Lähn: A first insight into the key topics of the annual outlook

Benefit from our analyses and make the best possible start to a successful 2025.

The FERI CIO Office wishes you a successful investment year 2025.