Geopolitics: Is the USA falling into the “autocrat trap” under Trump?

Donald Trump's second term as US President is already changing the face of the USA. In the future, however, serious policy mistakes can also be expected, triggered by extremely narrow decision-making processes. Like Russia and China, the USA under Trump is threatened with a dangerous path into the “autocrat trap”. This term stands for systematic mistakes made by autocratic autocrats, triggered by an extreme concentration of power. As a result of this development, geopolitical risks will increase noticeably, warns the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute. 

Central problem of autocratic systems  

According to the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute, an important advantage of liberal democracies is the pronounced diversity of opinion. The open exchange of different ideas enables - at least in principle - balanced solutions even for complex problems. In typical autocracies, on the other hand, open discourse is neither possible nor desirable, which inevitably leads to a severe restriction of possible solutions. “In an autocracy, the 'strong leader' always makes all the important decisions in the end. Alternative opinions are systematically suppressed or completely ignored - this is precisely where the central problem of autocratic systems lies,” explains Dr. Heinz-Werner Rapp, founder and head of the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute. 

China and Russia as negative examples 

According to Rapp, authoritarian regimes such as Russia or China show clear symptoms of such an “autocrat trap”: “The erratic corona policy and the decline of the Chinese economy are directly attributable to decisions made by China's autocrat Xi Jinping; the Russian invasion of Ukraine is based on a personal misjudgement by Russia's ruler Vladimir Putin,” emphasizes Rapp. These examples represent dangerous mistakes that have caused enormous costs and irreparable political damage. Should the USA now also increasingly take the path towards autocracy under Trump 2.0 - which is becoming increasingly apparent - America would face a similar problem. “Donald Trump will concentrate more and more power in his own hands, while systematically ignoring critical voices and alternative points of view. This is a sure recipe for serious political mistakes - for the USA itself, but also for the rest of the world,” warns Rapp. 

Increased geopolitical risks due to Trump 2.0 

Serious misjudgements are already known from Trump's first term in office, for example in dealing with the coronavirus pandemic or the bizarre talks with North Korea's autocrat Kim Jong-un. However, this trend will become noticeably more pronounced in the future. Trump's shocking statements about a US takeover of the Gaza Strip are a foretaste of this. “Trump is acting like a true autocrat in his second term of office and will be less and less restrained. This almost inevitably leads to the expectation of serious policy mistakes by the USA - and therefore also an increase in geopolitical risks,” expects Rapp. Entrepreneurs and investors should explicitly take this scenario into account in their strategic risk management, concludes the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute.

The FERI Cognitive Finance Institute has already published several comprehensive analyses on growing geopolitical risks in the US environment - most recently “America on the road to autocracy” in 2022 and “Trump reloaded” in 2024. All analyses are available in German in the download area on this page.